Border Gavaskar Trophy 2018/19 Preview

The year 2018 has been a turbulent year for the  Australian cricket team. It all started going wrong with the ball tampering scandal which resulted in the captain Steve Smith, vice captain David Warner and opener Cameron Bancroft all being suspended for lengthy periods.  Many have said the bans were excessive and an overreaction to the public outrage but in the view of your humble correspondent, these bans were fair and needed to be served as this was a planned, organised and premeditated act.  The ball tampering scandal led to several casualties as well as a cultural review into Cricket Australia which in turn led to more fallout and ongoing departures. Overall, it has been a messy and costly affair but a massive cleanup has ensued with the Australian Team Coach Darren Lehman being replaced by Justin Langer.  CEO James Sutherland, Chairman David Peever, Performance Manager Pat Howard  are other notable Administrators who have also departed.

Before we review this Series, I wanted to revisit the Ball Tampering Saga in retrospect.  What drove these well paid, highly regarded cricketers to tamper with the ball?  Was it a “win at all costs” mentality stemming from the very top, a merciless media demanding successful results, a deluded sense of public expectations due to the bubble that is elite sport or simply a lack of on field leadership?  Perhaps it was some combination of all of those factors. The press conferences were a public relations disaster as the players tried to gloss over the significance of their actions and even cover things up. This demonstrated they were unaware of perceptions, unprepared for how the world would react or the media storm that was to follow.  

The Australian cricket team and captaincy is one of the highest held offices in Australian sport and is a source of national identity and pride. Being a sporting nation, cricket is one those sports that defines us. The Australian team has always been well supported but has not always been popular because of the conduct of certain individuals on the field.  There is absolutely nothing wrong with passion, emotion, playing hard or engaging in occasional humorous banter. However boorish behaviour such as bullying, trash talking and foul mouthed send-offs showcase a more ugly side of the “gentleman’s game”. This was a bubble that had to burst and very few came to the Australian team’s defence when events unfolded, which spoke volumes.  Hopefully it’s the dawn of a new era and public faith and popularity can be restored.

What not many have spoken of is why ball tampering to gain an advantage (by getting the ball to reverse swing) is so rife in the first place and whether it should even be legalised.  To say that all teams tamper with the ball is not an acceptable defence as tampering is clearly against the current laws of cricket.  However, over history, bats and batsmanship has evolved, pitches (especially the drop-in variety) have become more benign and field restrictions more stringent but the ball has not really changed over the years, making cricket very much a batsman’s game. To restore this balance without changing the rules to allow ball tampering it’s probably worth reviewing the usage and anatomy of the cricket ball.  There are only a few major cricket ball brands used by most nations – the Kookaburra, the Duke and SG are the main ones with the Kookaburra being the most dominantly used ball around the world.  

The Duke ball with its more prominent seam has traditionally assisted bowlers the most so perhaps it’s time for more nations to consider adopting it or for Kookaburra to improve its ball to help bowlers more. Interestingly the Australian Sheffield Shield did conduct some trials with the Duke Ball in recent years. Perhaps all ball makers should try to research and develop a cricket ball that naturally starts to reverse swing after 20 overs to discourage players from having to resort to underhanded tactics to alter the ball condition. Interestingly the inferior quality “two piece” cricket ball used in lower grade cricket swings a lot more prodigiously than the four piece ball used in international cricket so if a higher quality version of a two piece cricket ball could be made, that might be a great starting point. 

Anyway, for the moment what’s done is done .  Australia are significantly weakened as a result of these suspensions but will still be proud of their home record and are very strong at home.  They have a tough summer against India who will be formidable opponents. How will they fare?

Australia Team Review

Tim Paine now leads the Australian test team and has been their calm leader during a time of crisis.  He is a capable batsman averaging in his 40s and a fine gloveman that should have played many more tests for Australia had it not been for some horrific injuries and bad luck.  Paine’s main issue is that he has lost Smith and Warner who score most of Australia’s runs. Usman Khawaja is the only current batsman who averages over 50 in Sheffield Shield cricket and most of the others in Australia’s top 6 except Shaun Marsh average below 40 which showcases the alarming dearth of quality reserve batsman knocking on the door.  

Shaun Marsh despite his inconsistency is very experienced, he has recent first class form and bats well at home so he has to be picked at the top of the order and will probably open with Finch.  Marsh is an extremely nervous starter but if he gets to 20, he can easily score 150. The arrival of Finch and Khawaja as players of substance during the recent Pakistan test series has been welcome but the batting order still has a very brittle feel about it and they have had too many collapses of late.  Glenn Maxwell has been in and out of the team but deserves an extended run to bring stability to the batting order especially as he is now a senior player. Head and the younger of the Marsh brothers will probably complete the middle order though others such as Handscomb, Renshaw, Burns, Lehman, Doolan, Short and Stoinis will compete for spots. Jason Sangha, Australia’s Under 19’s captain has been touted by many as one for the future but is probably a season too young.  He is a capable batsman who can also bowl handy leg spin.

The bowling attack picks itself and this is where Australia is strong.  Starc, Hazelwood, Cummins and Lyon is a solid attack which has strike power and variety that can get 20 wickets to win a test match.  Coulter-Nile, Behrendorf, Stanlake, Tremain, Bird and Boland will provide capable backup though Siddle is the current preference due to his experience.  James Pattinson is rebuilding his strength and fitness after an extended injury layoff and is now bowling again but should not be rushed back.  The recent success of Mohammed Abbas from Pakistan accentuates the fact you do not need to bowl express pace to take wickets but Australia still has an obsession with pace with our hard, dry, bouncy pitches.  This obsession has resulted in several medium paced prolific domestic wicket takers ending up on the scrap heap.  Lloyd Pope, Fawad Ahmed and Mitch Swepson provide reserve spin options to Lyon. Provided Australia’s first choice bowlers are fit and firing, Australia should be competitive but the question is can they make 400 runs?  A lot will depend on their top 3 batsmen.

Australia – Five to watch

1. Usman Khawaja – Recently batted longer than anyone in the fourth innings bar Michael Atherton to save a game for his country in Dubai.  In doing so, he showed great temperament, improved ability against spin as well as his overall fitness. Graceful to watch and with a newfound hunger to perform, Khawaja has matured, he is in good form and should be one of the first to be picked for tests.  He should also be restored to the ODI setup soon if his fielding has improved sufficiently. He has had knee surgery recently which was a bit of a scare scare but should play all tests if fit.  I am expecting a big summer from Uzzie
2. Aaron Finch – His chances to forge a test career had all but been written off as he had been labelled as a white ball specialist due to his short form success as well as his temperament and technique.  However, vacancies in the Australian test batting order gave him a renewed opportunity which he has taken and he has been scoring runs. Captaincy of the ODI setup have also meant he is also now in the Leadership team.  The test opening spot is now his to lose. Finch also scores runs very quickly. If Warner plays for Australia again, he and Finch would make a formidable pair at the top of the order
3. Mitchell Marsh – Returning from an extended layoff with injury that prevented him from bowling and has recently been made vice captain so it’s obvious that the younger Marsh is a big part of Langer’s future plans.  His defence has improved, he scored big runs late last summer and hits the ball as hard as anyone. However, his bowling is also valuable as it will give the main bowlers a rest similar to Shane Watson’s role.  Marsh may have plenty of batting to do if there is a middle order collapse and I expect him to bat well with Tim Paine to resurrect the innings. He will forever be a target of the media and public expectations due to his famous family name with his father Geoff Marsh (aka Swampy) having played for Australia
4. Josh Hazelwood – Hazelwood was recently made the vice captain of the Team which shows how highly he is regarded.  He does not often get the same accolades as Cummins and Starc but he can be as relentless as Glenn McGrath when it comes to accuracy, line and length.  Hazelwood will always build pressure from his end and bowl very well in tandem with Lyon in particular.
5. D’Arcy Short – An explosive batsman of indigenous heritage, D’Arcy Short made a double hundred in a recent domestic ODI albeit on a tiny suburban ground (Hurstville oval). Short could be a bolter for a test selection as first class sheffield shield records appear to be meaningless these days. He is a pocket rocket who could be a future batting star of a similar ilk to David Warner. Very entertaining to watch and will be greatly encouraged by Finch’s breaking into the Test Team.

My Australian Test XI – Finch, S Marsh, Khawaja, Maxwell, Head, M Marsh, Paine, Cummins, Starc, Hazelwood, Lyon

My Australian ODI/T20 XI – Finch, Short, Khawaja, Maxwell, Lynn, Stoinis, Carey, Agar, Tye, Coulter-Nile, Behrendorf

India Team Review

India arrives in Australia as the number 1 ranked Test Nation.  They got a hiding in England so there is still a question mark over their ability to win away although the final result (4-1 to England) did not indicate how close the test series was.  What India do have on this tour which they have never previously had on previous tours, is 4 or 5 fast bowlers who can all bowl at 140kmph+ Shami, Yadav, Sharma, Bumrah, Kumar can all hit the seam at good pace.  Kumar’s has been the most remarkable transformation as he was a military medium seamer bowling at mid 120s on his last tour of Australia.

Shami is a very skillful bowler who can swing the ball both ways and always creates chances.  Yadav is fast, can bowl long spells and he is in form though he can also leak runs with wayward deliveries. It feels like Ishant Sharma has been around forever but he is a workhorse and much improved bowler who can hit good lengths and extract good bounce with his height.  He can bowl all day if his captain asks him to. However, Bumrah is probably India’s most exciting test bowler to recently emerge as he has raw pace, accuracy and skills.  He was a white ball specialist for a long time with his deadly yorkers but has recently broken into the test team.  

India’s batting is very talented although they tend to historically struggle with the hard, bouncy ball. Prithvi Shaw is an exciting young talent who should open the batting if he is fit and will definitely entertain the crowd if he gets going.  KL Rahul is a prodigiously talented young batsman who dominated IPL but needs to make the most of his chances to prove he is a test player.  Murali Vijay is a very experienced and patient opener but he was recently dropped and age is also against him so he will need to fight to win his spot back.  Dhawan is an attacking opener who will be keen to also cement his spot.  Rahane and Pujara are solid, dependable batsman who will try to build partnerships around Kohli. However, India’s batting is still heavily reliant on Virat Kohli so they will need more consistency and partnerships from the other batsmen.  Kohli has probably been the form batsman of the world in the past 12 months and will be hoping to continue his purple patch.  

When it comes to spin, Ravichandar Ashwin is a world class bowler but has recently dipped in bowling form so could find his spot taken by Ravindra Jadeja or even Kuldeep Yadav the specialist wrist spinner if India seek to exploit Australia’s perceived weakness to spin. Rishabh Pant is a good young keeper batsman who is energetic behind the stumps. The Indians will not fear the Australian Team but they will respect Australia when facing them at home especially.  With a weakened Australian team, this is India’s best chance to achieve a rare away win.

India Test squad – Virat Kohli (C), M Vijay, KL Rahul, Prithvi Shaw, Che Pujara, Ajinkya Rahane, Hanuma Vihari, Rohit Sharma, Rishabh Pant, Parthiv Patel, Ravi Ashwin, Ravi Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Ishant Sharma, Umesh Yadav, Jasprit Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar Kumar

My Indian Test XI – Vijay, Shaw, Pujara, Kohli, Rahane, Rahul, Jadeja, Pant, Shami, Ishant, Bumrah

India – Five to watch

1. Prithvi Shaw – Electric batsman with the ability to find the boundary.  Dimunitively built in stature, very much like the little master Sachin Tendulkar standing at only 165cm tall, Shaw has been tipped to achieve big things.  This tour will be a great learning experience for him and I expect him to make more and more runs as the tour progresses and he relaxes into his role.  Hopefully the selectors are not too conservative and give him a chance to play
2. Jaspreet Bumrah – Bumrah hits the seam hard and the Australians have not seen too much of him so he will bring a surprise element.  He has an unorthodox action with a stuttering run up which explodes at the crease generating significant pace. He bowls at a consistent length and is very accurate and at the stumps at all times.  
3. Virat Kohli – Kohli vs Smith would have been a fascinating battle similar to Kohli vs Root earlier this year.  Steve Smith definitely won the first round in India the last time these teams met although India won the series.  Kohli is now probably the world’s best batsman on current form. Kohli has the same confident swagger as Viv Richards and takes on the bowlers with aggression.  He really thrives on the contest and any attempts to unsettle him will only motivate him more. India will rely heavily on Kohli to score the bulk of their runs
4. Mohammed Shami – Shami is the most talented Indian bowler and he is probably the leader of their attack.  He has had a few off field issues recently but when he is at his best, he has pace, swing, seam.  He beats the ball very often and has a good strike rate. Shami should enjoy Australian conditions and swing the new ball.  He can also reverse swing the old ball at pace.
5. KL Rahul – Another very talented and highly rated batsman who is now getting more  chances in the Indian Test Team.  Rahul did not do well in England so his spot in the test team is not guaranteed but he will be keen to establish himself in the batting order. KL reminds me a bit of VVS Laxman with his tall and elegant strokeplay

Series Prediction

Australia without Smith & Warner will struggle this summer although India are not as strong when playing away which tends to even the odds.  The test matches will be held in Adelaide, Perth, Melbourne and Sydney this time around. Interestingly the BCCI would not agree to playing a day night test match and their wish was granted, which is both astounding and disappointing as cricket fans would have loved it.  The new Perth Stadium is an exciting development and is now the second largest cricket stadium in Australia by capacity behind the MCG (MCG 100,000, Perth 60,000, Adelaide 54,000, SCG 48,000, Gabba 36,000). It will be interesting to see whether it is as quick as the old WACA pitch.

India’s current crop of fast bowlers are much improved and their young batsmen will be confident and fearless. They say that you learn more from your losses than your wins and India would have definitely learned from the mistakes of their recent South African and England tours and be hungry for success.  The Australian team will be very determined at home but they do not looked settled yet and they have had so much of turmoil to deal with of late as well as losing their star batsmen and captain, especially Steve Smith who has been our best batsman since Don Bradman. 

Due to the toll of these recent events, I am predicting India to take the series 3-1 in what should be an incredible series.  Australian TV Viewers please note that this year, cricket will be televised on Channel 7 & Fox Sports and not Channel 9 like in previous years.

Australia vs India Test Fixtures

• First Test Adelaide Oval December 6-10
• Second Test Perth Stadium December 14-18
• Third Test MCG December 26-30
• Fourth Test SCG January 3-7

That’s all folks.  Please feel welcome to leave a comment 🙂