Australia vs South Africa Preview 2016/2017

Summer has rolled around again and along with it, that familiar rhythmic thump of willow on leather.  This year’s cricket season is one of the most jam packed schedules with four international teams (New Zealand, South Africa, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) visiting, not to mention the Big Bash, Matador Cup and Sheffield Shield thrown into the mix.  It will be a testing summer for our Aussies who have just returned after getting thumped by Sri Lanka and South Africa.  There is not really any one dominant team in the world at present with every team seemingly Kings in their own backyards.  For Australian Captain Steve Smith, his honeymoon period is definitely now over and this summer will be a stern test of his captaincy so we may get to see his true colours.

This season will also see not one, but two Day Night test matches.  Despite players grumbling about the pink ball, day night test matches have been a great marketing success in the past and will help keep test cricket alive with terrific crowds and prime time viewing.  A new gadget we will see on television is Scan Cam which will provide feedback on the pitch using sonar.  Speaking of pitches, this is one factor that could influence outcomes heavily.  Last summer, the drop-in pitches used were so docile and devoid of character to the extent that they sent Mitchell Johnson into an early retirement!  And Johnson was not the only victim.  Richard Hadlee who famously announced before the series that Boult and Southee were NZ’s best bowling pair in history must have watched in horror to see them reduced to pure military medium cannon fodder. The benign pitches made every flat track bully appear Bradmanesque and you really felt for all the bowlers.

Let’s hope for the sake of cricket that the pitches are back to what they used to be once upon a time as the characteristics and variations between pitches combined with local weather conditions add to the glorious uncertainty of this great game.  Read below for our predictions on how the test series between Australia and South Africa is likely to pan out.  We will also name who are likely to be the key players, movers and shakers to watch

Australia vs South Africa

First up, there is the Test Series against South Africa.  For purists, this is a salivating prospect between two well matched Antipodean Nations that play a similar brand of cricket on hard and fast pitches.  The off-field verbal jousts have already begun and these are two heavy weights who have had some fascinating tussles in the past.  

South Africa Team Review

South Africa has always been very talented and competitive dating way back to the days of Barry Richards and Graeme Pollock.  They were the number one Test Nation over two lengthy periods between 2012 and 2016 but these days languish at fifth in the ICC Rankings ¹  There are multiple reasons one could argue as to why South Africa are not currently at the top.  Their batting, especially their middle order has somewhat of a fragile underbelly with some of the batsmen yet to cement their place and while some of their more established batsmen are starting to fade.  Dale Steyn has also had an extended absence through injury during the past few months.  The absence of a really high quality slow bowler in test matches has been another handicap.  Finally their quota system may have outlived its shelf life especially when merit goes unrewarded  ².

The brilliant news for the Proteas is that Dale Steyn is back and bowling as well as ever.  Together with Morkel, Philander and Rabada, they form a potent pace quartet who will test the Australians.  Steyn has speed, swing and guile.  Philander has a great strike rate, accuracy and hits the seam.  The gentle giant Morkel generates tremendous bounce and the youngster Kagiso Rabada is blessed raw pace.  He is truly one of the most exciting prospects in world cricket.  Their reserve stocks look pretty healthy as well.  Shamsi or Maharaj may get the nod if they need a slow bowler but they are also quite as likely to go in with four fast men and rely on the part time spin of Duminy.  Tahir is a very good attacking leg spin bowling but more successful in the shorter format and was left out of the squad.  Batting wise, their they will be relying a lot of Amla and Du Plessis as their best player and captain AB De Villiers is unfortunately unavailable due to injury.  This is an opportunity for other players to step up asnd shine but it remains to be seen who will.  

South Africa – Five to watch

1. Dale Steyn will be fascinating to watch on what could be his last tour down under as he is 33 years old.  His extended layoff due to injury looks to have done him a world of good.  He will be a great drawcard and go down as one of the greatest ever.  
2. Kagiso Rabada is an exciting prospect who is still learning his trade.  He is a genuinely quick wicket taker who will only get better.  Hopefully he will get picked as there is stiff competition for bowling spots
3. Quinton De Kock is a very exciting batsman who when he is on song, can take the game away with a quickfire fifty much like Adam Gilchrist used to do
4. Faf Du Plessis will be the acting leader of the pack . Who can ever forget his mental strength and epic stonewalling efforts in Adelaide on their previous tour.  
5. Hashim Amla combines a great technique with the unflustered temperament of a monk.  Once he digs in, his powers of concentration mean that he can make  big hundreds although some say he is not as good as he once was.

Australia Team Review

The Australian Team have a point to prove after a spate of overseas defeats and will come out swinging in familiar home conditions.  They will be buoyed by the return of Mitchell Starc who was one of the sole shining lights of the Sri Lanka tour.  Starc’s sizzling pace and hostility will be ably assisted by Hazelwood’s bounce and accuracy.  Siddle or Mennie are both highly capable and will fight for the third pacer’s spot. Mitchell Marsh adds a nice fourth option to give the main bowlers a much needed rest and Lyon will provide variety with his slow bowling.  Unfortunately James Pattinson, Pat Cummins and Nathan Coulter-Nile are unlikely to feature in this season’s Test Matches.  Other than Mennie, Jackson Bird is the next bowler most likely to get the call up if any fast bowlers are rested or injured.  They will also be keen to improve their fielding which has always been strong but their high standards dropped off recently overseas.

When it comes to batting, Smith and Warner will form the nucleus of the batting line-up and are expected to score most of the runs.  However, Shaun Marsh and Usman Khawaja will be keen to cement their positions.  Voges batting averages have come down after the amazing start to his test career and age is against him but he adds experience to the team.  Joe Burns who is one for the future was desperately unlucky to be dropped and will be very keen to win back his position so Voges will need to make more runs than he has recently. Mitchell Marsh will round off the top six with Nevill keeping. Despite the talent and ability of the South African pace men, Australia’s batsmen will be a lot more comfortable and at home than facing the wily Rangana Herath on a rank slow turner in Colombo!

Australia – Five to watch

1. Mitchell Starc – Starc will be returning from injury so may be used in short 3-5 over bursts and given a license to bowl fast and furious and will be awkward to face.  If the Australians go 2-0 up, expect him to be rested for the third test
2. David Warner – The Openers set the tone for the rest of the batting and Warner is at his best when the ball is coming onto his bat. If he bats for 100 minutes, he can take the game away from the opposition.  
3. Usman Khawaja – Uzzie has been dropped from the team a couple of times but when he is at his best, he is a pleasure to watch with the languid grace that Southpaws so often possess.  He was all at sea in Sri Lanka so will need to lift his work ethic and defy his critics.
4. Mitchell Marsh – Marsh is another whose position has come into question despite his tremendous abilities, he is yet to fill the shoes of the man he replaced Shane Watson.  Batting at Number 6 will mean he is expected to make runs.  A few 80s and the occasional 100 will help cement his spot.  His bowling has been very handy.
5. Peter Nevill – Nevill has been steady and safe.  However, he will also be keen to make more runs to cement his position.  He has big shoes to fill with his predecessors Gilchrist and Haddin quite often rescuing the top order when they failed.

Prediction

This will be a battle of the bowlers with two very fine bowling attacks.  Both teams fight hard and won’t give an inch.  My prediction is 2-1 to the Australians as the South African middle order batsmen will find it difficult to make large totals for their bowlers to defend once Faf Du Plessis and Hashim Amla are dismissed and the absence of AB De Villiers will also be keenly felt.  Australia may also have a slight mental edge over their rivals when the going gets tough.

Click here ³ to view the TV Schedule

Citations

¹ ICC Rankings sourced from the ICC website

² Article sourced from the ESPN CricInfo website

³ TV Schedule sourced from Australia Cricket website produced by Cricket Australia